Well, I guess I can fault Trump on this occasion, and with him having signed the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017, which aims to improve the lead warning times for severe weather events, which includes hurricanes and tornadoes. The aim is to give upto an hours warning for tornadoes, and may also include the NHC plans for the new invest advisories as well. I haven't really had time to look into this yet, so I will update this post when I can.Read more >
I'm going to be busy this afternoon just letting you know. I'll be back around 7 EDT.Read more >
Yeah, this is probably gonna be happening just about every sunday, but anyone else wanna join me on CAH?
CycloneRyne94 (talk) 00:47, April 24, 2017 (UTC)Read more >
I have just made my 100th edit on this wiki!!!! 😀 I am so impressed! I am goin to be promoted from a editing storm to a category 1 editcane! I hope I can get to 200 edits soon! Thanks! 😀Read more >
So we recently had Tropical Storm Arlene become the second April named storm on record in the Atlantic. But could we get another storm before the season officially begins on June 1? It's definitely a possibility. May storms have occurred in 6 of the last 10 Atlantic seasons, and 5 of those 6 were named storms. The CFS model shows a favorable MJO pattern throughout most of the month, in addition to ridging over the northeastern US which often allows storms to develop underneath. Sea surface temperatures are also above average along the Gulf Stream, where May Atlantic storms most often develop. What do you think? Will the Atlantic get a May storm for the third year in a row?Read more >
Hey guys, Akio again.
Today is now a historical date in HHW history, as we have now hit 4000 pages!
It is shocking to see when I returned back in August, the wiki was at around 3100 pages, and now we are at 4000!
Thank you everyone for contributing to this wonderful wiki! :DRead more >
Somehow SD1 ended up becoming TS Arlene despite prior predictions?
It may not have pulled a Full-On Alex, necessarily, but i was surprised to see it strengthen to a 50 mph TS and supposedly become strongest April storm after Ana2003.
This all being despite the Water Temps and other Conditions it was supposed to encounter...
Well, at least now Bob can finally bed Arlene in peace. :3 (lol)
CycloneRyne94 (talk) 06:58, April 21, 2017 (UTC)Read more >
Well, We've seen it coming for a few days, but its finally here, though weaker than anticipated.
Subtropical Depression One developed in time for the 1500 UTC update, and has 1-minute winds of 35 mph. The very low pressure of 995 mbar is a result of its origins as an extratropical system initially.
The structure of the system consists of a bading feature to the southeast of the center, with the highest winds well away from the center as well.
One is expected to travel to the northeast, before turning north then northwest as an approaching extratropical cyclone begins to absorb it tomorrow.
My intensity forecast will call for a peak of 35 mph, before weakening to 30 mph after 24 hours as the larger cyclone beins to interact with it.Read more >
It's official. www.nhc.noaa.govRead more >
Ok, so it is now late April. The Pacific hurricane season is starting soon, and we're probably going to get a pre-season storm in the Atlantic. The atlantic hurricane season is getting closer, and I think it's logical to ask this again now that things seem to be completely different.
What do you think 2017's ENSO will be? Feel free to provide your thoughts in the comments as well.Read more >
OK, for those of you who have shown an interest in my analysis wiki, my list of Atlantic category 4 and 5 hurricanes are both linked, along with the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season summary.
- http://laytens-database.wikia.com/wiki/List_of_Category_4_Atlantic_hurricanes (117)
- http://laytens-database.wikia.com/wiki/List_of_Category_5_Atlantic_hurricanes (33)
OK, so I got up this morning and went on my laptop, expecting a 30/30 still, and maybe a further deterioration of 91L. Instead, I find this:
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Also, when I then looked on the NHC afterwards, I found a new STWO, which is below:
Hey Guys, doesnt that currently non-tropical low over the Atlantic remind you of Pre-Alex 2016?
CycloneRyne94 (talk) 10:44, April 18, 2017 (UTC)Read more >
Special Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1250 PM EDT Mon Apr 17 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A non-tropical low pressure system located over the central Atlantic about midway between Bermuda and the Azores Islands is producing an area of gale-force winds to the west of the center. This low is currently producing only limited shower activity, but environmental conditions could favor additional development and this system has some potential to become a subtropical cyclone over the next day or so as it moves generally eastward. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by 2 PM EDT Tuesday. For additional information on this system, please see High Seas Foreca…
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So, this morning, the NHC designated the extratropical low in the North Atlantic as Invest 91L, suggesting it has become completely detached from its fronts. This has become the second out-of-season low in the Atlantic. Is this a sign of things to come?Read more >
If anyone wants to join me for some Easter Cards Against Humanity, this is where you go for it: http://pyx-2.pretendyoure.xyz/zy/game.jsp#game=11 :)
CycloneRyne94 (talk) 00:50, April 17, 2017 (UTC)Read more >
You know? The holiday that celebrates the Gun Fights in the Old West?
lol, jk, Happy EASTER everybody, i hope you are having a good day so far today and perhaps with some yummy candies. :)
CycloneRyne94 (talk) 15:34, April 16, 2017 (UTC)Read more >
Hey Guys, anyone up for a little Pre-Easter Cards Against Humanity?
I'm on now if you wanna join: http://pyx-2.pretendyoure.xyz/zy/game.jsp#game=88
CycloneRyne94 (talk) 01:06, April 16, 2017 (UTC)Read more >
OK, I'm sure we've all seen the change in the modelling last night. The GFS in aprticular is aggressive with what could potentially become a cyclonic storm, taking it to category 1/2 intensity before landfall in Burma/Myanmar as a ~970-975 mbar low. This kind of pressure in this basin typically corresponds to a category 1 or category 2 tropical cyclone, or a very severe cyclonic storm on the IMD scale.
Anyway, I will be keeping a close eye on this, especially when some models bring it to cyclone intensity by the end of today. I really do hope this is one of those unreliable runs. I really do. A cyclone developing so quick in this region is practically unheard of (only a few storms have managed it),and Burma/Myanmar were in a pickle when it …Read more >
I've thought about this since models considered El Nino for 2017. Now that this is the probable scenario, if it does occur, what will happen in 2018? The possible El Nino will almost certainly be gone in time for the 2018 season. Which could allow for favorable conditions to exist and therefore allow an above average season. Now we know that the name list for 2018 has had some bad years lately, but nature doesn't decide activity based on name lists. We're probably on the tail-end of the 2013-17 inactive phase in the atlantic, so 2018 could be Alberto's best year since 2000.
Or it could be complete garbage. Who knows?
I just want to hear your thoughts, as things are far from set in stone.Read more >
OK, I have noticed this on Force 13's Discord server, posted by Jason, our technical guy, who sets us up for live events, as well as keeping us up to date on the latest developments:
The following models have been discontinued by NWS/NHC:
- Beta Advection (BAM)
- Limited Barotropic (LBAR)
- Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)
This is part of the budget cut. The budget cut also includes the rejection of using Invest Guidances for 2017.
This message occurred at 1145 AM EDT Mon Apr 10 2017, so more information is to follow. The NHC Conference occurs next week so that'll provide more detail on this.
This means that the NHC has had to drop 3 of its major models, along with the new Invest Guidance for the 2017 hurricane season.
After tweeting …Read more >
If anyone would like to join me for a game of Cards Against Humanity, they can. :)
I'm playing till about 10 or 11 Eastern.
CycloneRyne94 (talk) 00:21, April 10, 2017 (UTC)Read more >
So I was looking at Intellicast and this EF0 touched down in an area of 25% cloud coverage and in California with no warnings around the area.
kden.Read more >
Hi guys, I know I was only meant to get Chat Moderator, but after Hype offered to give me RB (as there were none) I have accepted his offer to do so. You wont need to worry about any misuse of RB though, as I use the role with caution on every wiki I'm on anyway.
Also, one more thing. Thanks for allowing me to help out here again, it really does show, from my point of view, that you finally trust me again, which i am grateful for.Read more >
Um, OK, so I looked at the tropical storm in the western Australian Region this morning, expecting to see maybe 60 mph out of the system, only to find this:
A top end category 2 with 110 mph winds. The presentation of Cyclone Ernie is incredible, and i do think that the current JTWC forecast peak of 130 mph may be on the conservative side. Yes, I'm calling for a Category 5 from this one, which will also help bring up the record low ACE count so far this year to near average if it does.
The cyclone is currently moving slowly to the west-southwest, and is expected to be a Category 3 later today. However, at the rate things are gong, I wouldnt be at all surprised if we had a category 5 on our hands by late tonight. Anyway, I'll be staying track…
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It looks like Matthew had FINALLY received it's post-analysis a few days ago.
I was surprised to see it increased to 165 mph though it's hard for me to tell if the pressure at it's Cat-5 peak was changed at all or not.
I know it was definitely 941 MBAR when it was 160, does anyone know if that has perhaps changed? CycloneRyne94 (talk) 23:16, April 5, 2017 (UTC)Read more >
Well, we are now in April, and that means it is time to make Atlantic hurricane season predictions. Last season around this time I did a similar blog post where I collected users' predictions for the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season. Most of us were fairly accurate with last season's activity overall. Well now I'm going to be doing a blog post for users' predictions about the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season! Post your 2017 Atlantic hurricane season predictions below - please understand that these predictions are intended to be realistic. If you want to be correct, please stay away from forecasting a 1914 or 2005 repeat.
- Bobnekaro - 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, ACE ~75
- MarioProtIV - 12 named storms, 5 hurricane…
And it's not even April Fools Day anymore, so you know this has got to be something serious.
But, yes folks, i've been gone for a good while again.. remember the period a while ago in which my life had become so unpredictable i had to take time off and divert my attention elsewhere?
Well, you dont need to be an expert to know that it's happened again.. only worse..
Now, i have been able to get A Break today.. but i've noticed my life seems to be getting more Hectic and Unpredictable.. plus, i seem to kinda forget about other things.. namely this..
Im not kidding, it's really been that bad for me..
Read more >
And as a matter of fact, it's been getting bad enough to where.. and i am officially being serious about it, for the first since i joined this WIK…
Weclome To Hypthetical Hurricanes Wiki!
I Am Joshua Carin otherwise known as Joshua, And I have been interested in Hurricanes since 2013. I have lots of interest in hurricanes, so I decided to join Hypothetical Hurricanes Wiki yesterday! I hope I enjoy this Wiki forever!
Thanks!😁Read more >
I am leaving for the airport at 10 AM today. I may be able to talk at the airports and some of tomorrow morning but after that I will not be able to talk until April 10 or so. I hope you guys keep this wiki up and running while i'm gone. So I bid thee farewell until later this month.Read more >
I must say that it has been a great year being able to serve as your bot. I was a pilot for many years until I was finally able to join this community as a user and eventually a bot. It all started one year ago today when I first joined your chat at 4:37 AM. I nearly retired after one day, but after my owner Blobby offered me a chance to serve as a bot I chose to stay. I plan to stay here for a long time to come, logging as much as I can.
Read more >
Im a bot nearly all days of the year - but on this one day April 1st - I revert to human form. This is the only day of the year when I can speak for myself.
So yeah, my laptop came 3 days early! :D
Which means my activity will return to normal!
~ AkioRead more >
OK, I'm going to start posting updates here on STC Debby.
Debby is a Category 4 on the Australian Scale, and Dvorak analysis also indicates it could be a moderate Category 4 on the SSHWS as well, with the latest estimates T6.2, or 140 mph.Read more >
The NHC has officially retired the names Matthew and Otto (no names in the EPAC that I know of). I'm kinda surprised Earl didn't go, but oh well. The names will be replaced with Martin and Owen in 2022.Read more >
Listen, I want to talk about yesterday. I realize some of the things I did was wrong. I know I've been irritable lately, and mean. I know I've been different. But, after yesterday, I'm disappointed in the admin team. No offense, but some of your claims for my demotion were illogical. I'm gonna address a few.
- The claim that I was losing interest. Look, I know I said that, but it's March, the peak of the offseason. Everyone has lost some interest in this time. Hurricane Season is where we get most of our users and activity, everyone knows that
- When I said I was a "ticking time bomb", I was mad that day. My best friend had been blocked. Of course I was gonna be mad, I thought that was a given. We all say things we wish we hadn't said when we're…
Hi guys, specifically the admins really, but still, if you're reading this... :P
Anyway, I have the chat moderation coding working on my bot, but it needs to be chatmod to be able to run the codes, so I'm going to ask if this can be allowed, if its OK with you. The bot will give a warning, followed by a kick, then a 2 hour ban for spam. There will also be a swearing list, which will enable the same treatment for people swearing in the chat.
If this is not what you want, I understand completely. The command to see the new feature is !plugins.
As I said, I'm asking if my bot can be mod to do htis, but if not, it's OK with me. There will be no drama over it.Read more >
OK, the title says it all, but I dont care, I'm writing this post because I can :D
The GFS is hinting at a possible subtropical or even fully tropical storm Arlene within the next week :D. Eric Blake is even monitoring the possible precursor low for development, remarking on twitter: "Looks like a little something to watch in the SW Atlantic next week- and I'm the lucky operational guy 😳🙄 no delusions of grandeur please!" He also made a reference to the March 1908 hurricane, which again means something.
If the low does develop, it will likely pass by Bermuda and towards the Azores, as indicated by the GFS model.
However, the Euro doesnt show any development. I guess only time will tell :P
Anyway, if it does get the crayon, it might have tropic…Read more >
To fellow HHW users,
To you I leave not a heartfelt goodbye, or a storming out tirade, but something I have never seen a HHW user do in their retirement. I leave to you my advice.
- Joy can come in many forms, it doesn't have to involve a computer, or the internet, it can come from anything. Whatever way you enjoy life the best, is the best, and don't pressure yourself to continue doing anything you don't like, for any reason.
- Don't feel bad. Life is too amazing to feel bad. To not feel bad, correct whatever it is that is making you unhappy.
- Do not be mislead by what you are reading. I have enjoyed my time here, but I am moving on and finding better things.
- Follow this as strictly or as loosely as you feel, the best principle: Follow your own ad…
Read more >
Since today is the official resignation of Darren, today I become the official owner and manager of ICON. I am taking memberships to it. If you happen to have interest, please comment with the following information below:
-Why would you be a benefit to ICON? Why do you have interest in being a member? Please answer in a couple sentences.Read more >
I have some bad news. :(
My computer broke! >:(
I honestly don't know what is going on with it right now, so I don't know when it will be fixed.
This also means until it is fixed, I will have to use my phone to access HHW. So no Chapter Seventeen or editing seasons until my computer works again.
(So much for 100 edits today.)Read more >
OK, so the WMO Typhoon Committee met between the 14th and today, and the names Meranti, Sarika, Haima and Nock-ten have been retired from the west Pacific cycle of names. The new names will be announced sometime in the next few weeks most likely.Read more >
As the title says, thank You EVERYONE! Today I was promoted to bureaucrat, and I am happy to be instated to this position and will do my best to carry out my duties. This has been a wild ride ever since May 16, 2016, filled with excitement. I look forward to working with my Bureaucrat colleagues.
Once again, THANK YOU ALL SO MUCH!!!Read more >
The current sst setup looks set at the moment at least, and for an enso neutral hurricane season. The waters across all tropical cyclone basins appear to be either at average or above average. The first few months of hurricane season will likely start active, and before the expected El Nino takes shape in the latter months of the season. The next hurricane season will likely be El Nino, but which will prevent tropical cyclone across the Atlantic basin. It's hard to say right now, but I will continue to monitor the conditions for any changes over the coming months.Read more >
Well, I've been on this place for a while now. Recently, I attained bureaucrat rights. And now, I just wanna give you a heartfelt thank you blog. This isn't the end of this blog, more is to come. :)
HHW has been a place that has shown me amazing things I may have not saw otherwise. I have learned a great many things as well. And this started out with an interest for hurricanes. When I first joined this wiki, I had no idea what I was doing. I was bold in joining chat so quick, looking back on it. I was accepted when I joined. I don't remember much from that first day (My pages were cringe). I became more and more interested, and continued to put time and effort into seasons. I was on chat almost every day. I was becoming better liked. I felt…Read more >
I'm approaching 1 year on HHW, and I recently became a bureaucrat. I had a lot of thought today and I decided on something. I plan to do a face reveal later today. Be sure to be on chat. :)Read more >
I just wanted to thank you all for making me a bureaucrat, I have confidence in myself to make the right choices around here, and I'll try not to talk about my seasons as much. So again, thanks HHW, it has been a fun ride so far, but it has only just started.Read more >
To EVERYONE here: Thank you so much. These last several months have been awesome. I've made so many new friends along this ride. I have seen new things and learned things I could've never learned without you. And today, I have been promoted to crat. This is such an honor, and I just want to thank the whole community for supporting me along this wild and incredible ride.
THANK YOU ALL SO MUCH! YOU ARE THE BEST!Read more >
These templates are to be used as extra vote types.
Note: Some of these shown have been here for a while. I've just added them for aesthetic effect.
Template:Very Strongly Oppose:
Template:Neutral Leaning Oppose -
Template:Neutral Leaning Support -
Template:Strongly Support -
Template:Very Strongly Support -
Template:Support Skeptical -
The following have bene on the wiki for a while:
Template:FN (Alternative to NLS, could also be used in between NLS and N.
Template:ON (Alternative to NLO, could also be used in between NLO and N.)
The following I recently created:
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OK, after being in chat the last few days since returning, i have come to the conclusion that i am not ready for chat yet, or any other form of user communication that could get me blocked. For those that know how I was blocked, chat was a major issue at the beginning, before it transferred to threads, and eventually the blog that sealed my fate on January 12.
Therefore, I will take as long as it takes to put my head straight and decide how I'm going to tackle the issue before I post on any threads, write blogs, or come into chat again.
To say the least, this is my last chance here, and the last thing I want is to be blocked again, especially when this place means a lot to me, and is about my greatest interest.
No bad feelings i hope from thi…Read more >