TO ALL HHW ADMINS:
I know that I'm inactive, but the main reason is that I'm more focused on my education than other, alongside with family changes. Also, I am beginning to lose interest here, just like my brother. I'm upset that this has to happen, but it is what it is. I am planning a retirement thing in July, or later/earlier.Read more >
For those that know of my database wiki, this blog is probably best aimed at you, but regardless, the tropical cyclone summaries for tropical storms Bret and Cindy are out. So far, the standings between the Atlantic and eastern Pacific (fir where my summaries get written) are:
Name SSHWS category 1-min winds Pressure ACE
Arlene Tropical Storm 60 mph 993 mbar 0.7350 units
Bret Tropical Storm 45 mph 1007 mbar 0.8100 units
Cindy Tropical Storm 60 mph 992 mbar 1.5125 units
Name SSHWS category 1-min winds Pressure ACE
Adrian Tropical Storm 45 mph 1004 mbar 0.5275 units
Beatriz Tropical Storm 45 mph 1002 mbar 0.4425 units
Calvin Tropical Storm 40 mph 1005 mbar 0.2450 units
As you can see abo…
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This is a reboot of my old live blog series for my hypothetical world, Olaris.
We have a very unusual subtropical depression happening right now that's very high in latitude. This is not that common in Olaris for a system to form like this at about 57N latitude. Wind shear is moderately high, however this system is taking advantage of very high instability in the atmosphere caused by the tropical air mass down to the south colliding with the polar air to the north of this system coupled with sea surface temperatures of a barely sustainable (). The HTMC predicts 01N to peak at about 30 kt/35 mph before becoming fully embedded in the polar air mass and becoming a weak polar depression in the next 48 hours. In the meantime this subtropical de…Read more >
I'm gonna be dropping in activity for the next few weeks or so. Here is why:
- I'm going camping from today to Tuesday, but I will still be on chat and making an occasional edit
- After I return, my cousins will be visiting for a little while, so I will be less active.
- After July 6 (I think) I will be back to full activity
Well folks, It looks as though there is the Chance that we could see Don in JUNE..
It's a bit sudden, yeah, i think so too.
As you would imagine, this something that is being hinted at by, at the moment, the GFS Model.
Now Sure, it COULD be some kind of a 'Ghost Low', especially since it seems no other model currently show it.. but there are things in play that seem to perhaps solidify it some..
-- I hear of people on the Wiki say that anything indicated on models (Particularly GFS) as being 240+ hours out is simply too unbelievable/unreliable, as.. well.. it could be wrong, then again, it could also be right..
But the currently indicated model has it slated to appear by the 25th/26th.. or by about 120 hours out.. which i bel…Read more >
Well folks, how about that?
We have Twins in the Atlantic, Bret and Cindy. :)
Twins.. In June?! I dont know about you but i think we are in for a Great Season. :) CycloneRyne94 (talk) 17:42, June 20, 2017 (UTC)Read more >
You would naturally think of a Storm's Intensity..
A Storm that only sees 40 mph, people call that a Failicia.
A Storm that sees 110 mph, while that is a pretty good hurricane, it still seems to be a Failicia because it is not a Major Hurricane Yet.
And a storm that sees 155 mph also seems to be called a Failicia...
But how would you factor a Storm's Lifetime or Time at a Certain Intensity?
For example, would a Failicia be a TS (Perhaps Bret, for Example, even though it still lives) that only only lasts maybe 12-18 Hours (IE: 2 or 3 Full NHC Advisories)?
WOuld it be a Hurricane *74+ mph) that only sees that intensity for 3 hours (an intermediate advisory, possibly due to landfall) or 6 hours (a full advisory)?
Would it be a storm that DOES manage…
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I am pretty sure nost of you have noticed that my activity has been plummeting lately, but don't worry, I am not losing interest.
My main reason is final exams, followed by my birthday and then graduation. This has been taking a large chunk of my time away (Along with five (CENSORED) health projects) as a result.
However beginning around earlyish July my activity should return to well above normal. So don't worry.
Also I hear that we might get some storms soon, definitely wanting to see what they can become. :)
~ AkioRead more >
Well, it's Cards Against Humanity Sunday Again, anyone wanna play with me?
http://pyx-2.pretendyoure.xyz/zy/game.jsp#game=82 CycloneRyne94 (talk) 00:44, June 19, 2017 (UTC)Read more >
OK, so there's 2 invest areas active in the Atlantic basin, of which both have a decent chance to become tropical cyclones. An MJO across the MDR is expected, and theres the possibility that a Kelvin wave could also move across the basin briefly as well, which puts some favour on the systems currently active.
First of all, let's talk about Invest 93L, which developed in the Caribbean Sea at 0000 UTC. The cyclonic gyre now has a 40% chance of tropical or subtropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours, and an 80% chance in the next 5 days. i am going to go ahead and disagree with this, and say there is a 60% chance of a tropical or subtropical cyclone developing somewhere within this region in the next 48 hours, and an 80% chance of o…Read more >
Well, we are not even 3 weeks into the official hurricane season, and there remains 2 areas to monitor in the coming days, of which both could become tropical cyclones.
The first area I would like to discuss is the tropical wave that is currently designated as Invest 92L, which is situated well to the east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles, well out in the Atlantic Main Development Region. The tropical wave is moving to the west-northwest at 15-20 mph, and the NHC has it tagged with a 40% chance to become a tropical cyclone in 48 hours, and a 70% chance of doing so within 5 days. Personally, I would say this area if low pressure has a 60% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours, and a 80% chance of doing so within the …Read more >
OK, so there's more information available today, which warrants a blog from me as a result, so here it goes...
Invest 92L has developed in the Atlantic basin this afternoon, and has a 20% chance of development within the next 48 hours and a 40% chance within the next 5 days from the National Hurricane Center. I personally would indicate a 30% chance of development within 48 hours, and a 60% chance for within the next 5 days. The tropical wave is associated with a 1011 mbar surface low, and is surrounded by scattered moderate to isolated strong convection. The wave has been interacting with a Saharan air layer over the last day or so, which has helped to reduce the amount of convection over the system. However, in the last 12 hours or so, th…Read more >
Yeah, lately my plans havent really held up to what i had hoped.. then again, i am reminded that not everything works out in life..
BUT, im sure as you guys are aware, there are (Supposedly) two different areas to watch in the Atlantic: One in the area of the Gulf, and a rarity off of Africa.
And the the coming off of africa is something you dont usually see during June, MID-June no less.
At the moment, i have new plans to at least try to put into effect once at least one of these (Hopefully) form into something.
I can certainly tell you that you will see SOMETHING of an editing spree, one of which will be more updates to my 2063 Season.
Though, i should ask: on this years atlantic list, what names are you favorites? (Forgive me if i've asked t…
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OK, straight into today's discussion, where there's plenty to discuss, and even something to worry about potentially in the Atlantic.
The National Hurricane Center now has two areas of interest to monitor in the coming days. The first area of interest is a strong tropical wave that has emerged from the coast of Africa in the last 2 days, which has been tagged with a low chance for tropical cyclone development within the next 5 days. The wave is currently moving west at about 10-15 kt, and is situated in an environment of very moist air, isn't being hindered by the Saharan Air Layer, and is being aided by Wind surge that is tailing the low as it moves west. Modelling develops this low into a tropical depression in around 4-6 days, before int…Read more >
Several things are happening today in the tropics, which may be showing signs of stirring after the quietest start to tropical cyclone activity since 1954. Amongst these are a tropical cyclone in the eastern pacific, 2 potential tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, and the remains of a tropical cyclone in the western Pacific.
But first, lets talk about Tropical Depression Calvin, which is inland Mexico, moving to the west-northwest. Calvin is expected to dissipate over the mountainous terrains of Mexico later today, and could feed a developing low pressure area that has formed to its southwest over the Pacific. Although Calvin is inland and weakening, interactions with a monsoonal trough are causing life threatening flash flooding and mud/la…Read more >
Hi! I'm on vacation and I also feel like I just want to take a half-break from Wikia so expect to see my activity highly decline for maybe a week or two. Thanks! I'll usually come talk after something tropics-related happens.Read more >
Yup, that time of week again, anyone wanna play with me?
CycloneRyne94 (talk) 00:48, June 12, 2017 (UTC)Read more >
OK, so I have decided to start doing these blogs whenever there is something to talk about, pretty much like I did for active storms last year when I had the chance. Today's Discussion will be mentioning the two invest areas currently active, as well as an Area of Interest highlighted by the National Hurricane Center, along with my June hurricane season analogues.
So, as I said, I will begin with the tropical weather discussion side of this post, where we currently have 2 invest areas, along with another area of interest that is currently being monitored by the NHC.
Invest 96W is currently being monitored by the JTWC, and has a medium potential of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours as it moves off towards the northwest. The…Read more >
Feel free to contribute if you want to.Read more >
Well, it's that time of week, anyone wanna play CAH?
CycloneRyne94 (talk) 00:54, June 5, 2017 (UTC)Read more >
Hello! Today is June 1 - the day we have all been waiting for! The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun! Most forecasting agencies are predicting a near or above average season, so this season has potential to be very interesting! I'm still predicting a season of about 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 majors, including Tropical Storm Arlene. I doubt we'll see Bret form in the Gulf of Mexico as previously indicated by models, but I do think it could form sometime this month. We will have to watch and see.Read more >
Well, today is certainly another one for the NHC, as the HMON (Hurricanes in a Multiscaled Ocean coupled Non hydrostatic model) becomes fully operational for the first time. This model is the replacement of the old GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model), which has been retired as part of an effort to improve hurricane forecasting. As expected, the HMON will be an updated version of the GFDL, equipped with the latest data sets, modelling capabilities, and understandings of the weather.
The HMON is also being used, as expected, for the Eastern Pacific, where the model began running for Tropical Depression Two-E, and is currently looking to already be the best performer for the latest model runs. The HMON was also used under a tria…Read more >
OK, so I have just seen the products for Invest 91E, and the NHC has the disturbance tagged at 90/90 as of 0500 PDT. This system, regardless of its very likely development, will be a major threat to land, even if it doesnt make a landfall, due to the excessive rainfall it is producing.
What is set to potentially become Tropical Depression Two-E is currently moving slowly to the north, and the latest ASCAT pass at 0331 UTC showed an almost closed low level circulation within the system, and after seeing the satellite presentation this afternoon, I would not be surprised to see it designated a tropical cyclone at 1500 UTC.
Also, it is worth noting that the HWRF, along with some of the more unreliable models, indicate that Invest 91E will survi…Read more >
Hey guys, if anyone wants to play some Cards Against Humanity with me, they can: http://pyx-2.pretendyoure.xyz/zy/game.jsp#game=5
Plus, ive got plans for the coming week.
Tuesday: I will be coming here to work on a new Project and i will be working on a Project i had previously started on Hypo Events. (Which pertains to a future tuberculosis epidemic).
Thursday: The Start of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, Man, Already?
I suppose it might be ironic,but On this day, i plan on updating my live 2063 Season through out the Day.
Friday: Another day in which i will be updating my Live 2063 Season here.
Sunday: Two things will happen - I will do work on a Random Wiki (Whatever i decide on), and at 8:45 PM, will be my Weekly Cards Against Humanity…
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Since the last Vacation Overview seemed to be helpful, here is another one.
As some of you may know, I am going to be in Ohio for a few days, and then in Pennsylvania for a few days as well. Here is how active I will be and when.
I am taking a flight to Atlanta, GA, followed by another flight to Cleveland, OH a few hours later. After that I am somehow getting to Sandusky, OH.
Activity: I will be on chat at certain times, especially after the Cleveland flight. I may or may not be in chat between the Atlanta and Cleveland flights.
I am going over to the nearby amusement park, Cedar Point, and I will be there all day.
Activity: Little to None.
I have very little knowledge about this day, but I do know at the end we will be somehow getting to Athens, …
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Well, for those that have been following my TC Summaries on my wiki, another one was released a few days ago, Hurricane Hermine, and another one is in the process of being written now. Tropical Storm Ian's report will be out within the next few hours.
Other currently active projects include the listing of Category 5 Pacific super typhoons, as well as reports for all other tropical cyclones that will be on my database wiki, given time.Read more >
But does anyone wanna play Cards Against Humanity with me?
CycloneRyne94 (talk) 01:24, May 22, 2017 (UTC)Read more >
As we all know, the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is rapidly approaching. There are a lot of factors in place this season so it is a bit difficult to determine how active the season will be. The main factor will be whether El Nino is going to form or not, which as of this time are looking like it will not form in time to harm the season. My prediction numbers are listed below.
- 16-18 named storms
- 7-9 hurricanes
- 4-5 major hurricanes
These are based on a number of factors, including the anticipated El Nino refusing to form, above average sea surface temperatures, anticipated low wind shear values near the peak of the season, and a fair amount of moistness in the atmosphere across the Atlantic. Of course, there is the chance t…
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Well, this afternoon (my time), I became only the 3rd HHW user to reach 10,000 edits on a single account in the 7 year history of this wiki, and I'd like to say a few things:
- First of all, it might seem surprising for me to say this, but the block I received not once but twice at the end of last year appears to have helped. I have, since coming back in February, been a much more easy going person, and have appreciated the positive comments that have come my way, so thanks on that one.
- Being able to be trusted with rights again was another surprise I, if to be honest, wasnt expecting. Again, I'm thankful for this, as I had thought it would take a while to regain everyone else's trust here. You've all noticed a change in me since I returned, a…
You might know I have been consistently posting my edit count in the chat over the past few days, with the number a tiny bit closer to 2000 every time.
Well, here it is.
Yes, I am continuing a tradition I guess, by making yet another one of these xDDD
But Yay! 2000 Edits! Thank You all for continuing to encourage me to do another 1000 Edits! (Even you SM)
Also for statistics, it took me 4 months and 19 days to make 1000 edits.
For edits 1001-2000, it took me 4 months and 20 days.
And I probably just triggered all of you xD
But in all seriousness, thank you for all the support I have recieved from you. You guys are the ones that encourage me from day to day to remember to edit. And while I cannot be on all the time, …
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So, a bunch of users made their prediction on what they expected from 2017. I made one yesterday, however it was heavily criticized. I have decided to do some more research, and I have made my final prediction as of now.
I predict a slightly above average season to an above average season.
NAMED STORMS (40+ MPH): 13-16
HURRICANES (74+ MPH): 7-10
MAJOR HURRICANES (115+ MPH): 4-5
And by month.
REST OF MAY: Dead
JULY: Slightly Above Average
AUGUST: Above Average
SEPTEMBER: Average - Slightly Above Average
OCTOBER: Slightly Below Average
NOVEMBER: Below Average
For the Eastern Pacific, I predict somewhat similar numbers to the Atlantic, which would make the season Slightly Below Average to Average.
NAMED STORMS (40+ MPH): 12-15
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Well. Things sure have changed a lot since January. Let's get straight to the point. The GIHC predicts an overall above normal hurricane season. These are the predictions:
13-18 named storms
2-5 major hurricanes
Let's speak about why I make this prediction
- The El Nino event has failed to develop despite models forecasting a full-blown el nino by this point, and it is still struggling.
- A majority of forecast models show very favorable conditions across the atlantic for pretty much the whole season, including July.
- The only reliable forecast model still showing el nino is the ECMWF, which keep in mind has a warm bias.
- The top analogs for 2017 include 1996 and 2005, which were highly above average in their own aspects.
So be prepared…Read more >
It is almost Atlantic hurricane season, with only about 15 days remaining until June 1. The East Pacific Hurricane season began yesterday, May 15. This year, both basins had storms forming prior to the official start: Arlene in Atlantic in April, and Adrian in the East Pacific about a week ago in May. As this is an Atlantic forecast, only Arlene will be included in the forecast numbers.
I expect that this year's season will see similar, if not slightly more, activity than the previous year, 2016. In April, several forecasts were released predicting a slightly below average due to an expected development of El Niño. However, the chance of that occurring has declined throughout the month and a more neutral ENSO pattern is likely. Climat…
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Hey Guys, im playing CAH if you wanna join.
CycloneRyne94 (talk) 00:45, May 15, 2017 (UTC)Read more >
Well, it's the time of year for tropical cyclone season forecasts, and I have decided to release mine today. I call for between 15 and 17 named storms, 6-9 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes, along with an ACE index of 120-150 units. A category 5 hurricane may be possible during August or October, depending on exact conditions when the time comes.
With the way the conditions keep changing, this could become over estimated or underestimated at any point in the season, but it's a risk I'm willing to take.Read more >
Well, as some of you may be aware, I have been writing summaries for last years hurricane season. Today, Hurricane Matthew's report was released, which is available to see here: http://laytens-database.wikia.com/wiki/Hurricane_Matthew_(2016)
In the report, there is the standard summary, along with the best track data for my intensity estimates, as well as the accumulated cyclone energy throughout the storms life.Read more >
Well, as I'm sure everyone is aware by now, i have a TC database wiki, where i have been doing tropical cyclone summaries. Today, I have been working on the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season again, and I now have the summaries done for Alex, Colin, Eight, and Julia. As the day passes, more should follow at http://laytens-database.wikia.com/wiki/2016_Atlantic_hurricane_season for anyone who is interested in seeing the reports as they come out.Read more >
Well it sounds like the East Pacific is getting in on this Early Start Act with what may soon be Adrian.
It's hard for me to say for sure, but i feel like this is almost Mirroring 2012 in some ways, since both seasons started early.
CycloneRyne94 (talk) 21:45, May 9, 2017 (UTC)Read more >
Hey Guys, it's Sunday, and you (might) know what that means. :)
Anyone wanna join me for my Weekly Cards Against Humanity Gameplay?
CycloneRyne94 (talk) 00:43, May 8, 2017 (UTC)Read more >
For those who happen to stumble across this:
just randomly preserving the linkRead more >
Well, I'm sure we've all being seeing the runs of teh moels that are showing a pre season Hurricane Adrian making landfall, and the possible south Atlantic subtropical cyclone that could form.
I'll start with the most significant of the two first. Adrian is expected to develop out of the upcoming Gap Wind event, which will direct a disturbance towards the central American coast, which could become a tropical depression in about 3-4 days if the model runs are correct. If this does happen, Adrian will be setting quite a few records, by breaking the earliest storm, Aletta in 2014's record of May 14th for the earliest forming eastern Pacific tropical cyclone.
After this, it gets even better. The tropical cyclone is left meandering for several da…Read more >
For the first time in my life, I missed a failicia.
Apparently Tropical Depression Greg formed in some way or another and was named because it reached 40 mph in 10 min however was below 37 mph in 1-min. It lasted a single day and I completely missed Greg, because I did not have access to a device whilst Greg was active. I am such a disgrace ;( (lol jk)Read more >
Anyone wanna join me for my bi-weekly Cards Against Humanity Play?
http://pyx-2.pretendyoure.xyz/zy/game.jsp#game=66 CycloneRyne94 (talk) 00:47, May 1, 2017 (UTC)Read more >
Well, I guess I can fault Trump on this occasion, and with him having signed the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017, which aims to improve the lead warning times for severe weather events, which includes hurricanes and tornadoes. The aim is to give upto an hours warning for tornadoes, and may also include the NHC plans for the new invest advisories as well. I haven't really had time to look into this yet, so I will update this post when I can.Read more >
I'm going to be busy this afternoon just letting you know. I'll be back around 7 EDT.Read more >
Yeah, this is probably gonna be happening just about every sunday, but anyone else wanna join me on CAH?
CycloneRyne94 (talk) 00:47, April 24, 2017 (UTC)Read more >
I have just made my 100th edit on this wiki!!!! 😀 I am so impressed! I am goin to be promoted from a editing storm to a category 1 editcane! I hope I can get to 200 edits soon! Thanks! 😀Read more >
So we recently had Tropical Storm Arlene become the second April named storm on record in the Atlantic. But could we get another storm before the season officially begins on June 1? It's definitely a possibility. May storms have occurred in 6 of the last 10 Atlantic seasons, and 5 of those 6 were named storms. The CFS model shows a favorable MJO pattern throughout most of the month, in addition to ridging over the northeastern US which often allows storms to develop underneath. Sea surface temperatures are also above average along the Gulf Stream, where May Atlantic storms most often develop. What do you think? Will the Atlantic get a May storm for the third year in a row?Read more >
Hey guys, Akio again.
Today is now a historical date in HHW history, as we have now hit 4000 pages!
It is shocking to see when I returned back in August, the wiki was at around 3100 pages, and now we are at 4000!
Thank you everyone for contributing to this wonderful wiki! :DRead more >
Somehow SD1 ended up becoming TS Arlene despite prior predictions?
It may not have pulled a Full-On Alex, necessarily, but i was surprised to see it strengthen to a 50 mph TS and supposedly become strongest April storm after Ana2003.
This all being despite the Water Temps and other Conditions it was supposed to encounter...
Well, at least now Bob can finally bed Arlene in peace. :3 (lol)
CycloneRyne94 (talk) 06:58, April 21, 2017 (UTC)Read more >