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If you're new to the usercane concept, check this blog if you want to see how usercanes work: How Usercanes Actually Work.

The 2018 Atlantic usercane season is an ongoing event in usercane formation. It is the ninth season of usercane formation, and the third season of operational usercane tracking. Storms forming between January 1, 2018 and December 31, 2018 will be a part of this season. The 2018 season featured the highest number of userpressions developing in the month of January. The season's first userpression, which later became Tropical Userstorm Avdis, developed on January 3, and became the earliest tropical userpression ever to develop in the Atlantic basin, beating the previous record set by Tropical Depression Four (HurricaneHistory) in the 2016 season.

The season's strongest storm is Tropical Userstorm Frosty, a rapidly forming tropical cyclone that strengthened to reach winds of 50 mph (85 km/h) in less than a day after formation. The 2018 season has thus far been a very weak season, with no storms strengthening to severe tropical storms.

Seasonal forecasts

Predictions of tropical activity in the 2018 season
Source Date Named
storms
Usercanes Major
usercanes
Average (2010–2017) 17.1 7.1 5.8
Record high activity 37 22 14
Record low activity 4 2 2
 –––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
CMC December 3, 2017 26-35 1-4 0
FMC/PLS December 3, 2017 26-32 3-9 1-6
BNWC December 4, 2017 30-40 3-7 1-4
GIHC December 4, 2017 35 6 2
HMA December 6, 2017 33-45 4 1
NIMC December 7, 2017 27-40 2-3 2
FRMC December 23, 2017 25-45 3-7 0-3
JCSC December 24, 2017 20-25 3-7 2-3
CMC December 24, 2017 26-35 3-6 1-2
PWC December 24, 2017 23-36 4-11 1-7
CSHC December 31, 2017 28 4 2
BNMA January 1st, 2018 27-30 4-7 1-3
HMA January 1st, 2018 36 7 4
JCSC January 25, 2018 30-40 3-5 2
BMA January 26th, 2018 30-40 6 3
CMC February 12th, 2018 34-45 6 3
 –––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Actual activity
9 0 0
* June–November only.
† Most recent of several such occurrences. (see all)

Before and during the season, several agencies release forecasts regarding usercane activity.

On December 3, the Cooper Meteorological Center released their forecast for the 2018 season, calling for an above average season in terms of named storms, but a below average season in terms of usercanes and major usercanes. The same day, the FMC released their 2018 forecast, predicting 26-32 named storms, 3-9 usercanes, and 1-6 major usercanes. On December 4, 2017, the BNWC released their 2018 forecast on December 4, predicting 30-40 named storms, 3-7 usercanes, and 1-4 major usercanes, The same day, the GIHC released their 2018 forecast, predicting 35 named storms, 6 usercanes, and 2 major usercanes. Two days later, the HMA released their first forecast for the season, predicting 33-45 named storms, 4 usercanes, and 1 major usercanes. They also said that the number of userstorms was to explode sometime after late August. On December 7, the Nova International Meteorological Center released their forecast for the 2018 season, predicting 27-40 named storms, 2-3 usercanes, and 2 major usercanes.On December 24, the JCSC predicted a below average season, with 20-25 named storms, 3-5 usercanes, and 2-3 major usercanes, but also added that there was a 30% chance of a hyperactive season similar to 2017. On December 24, the CMC revised their predictions for the season, increasing the number of usercanes and major usercanes, but retaining the same number of storms. On the same day, the Prism Weather Center released their first forecast for the season, predicting 23-36 named storms, 4-11 usercanes and 1-7 major usercanes. On December 31, one hour before the season starts, the CSHC released their prediction for the season, predicting 28 named storms, 4 usercanes, and 2 major usercanes. On January 1st, the BNMA released their prediction, predicting a similar season to 2017, with 27-30 named storms, 4-7 usercanes and 1-3 major usercanes. the HMA released their revised prediction on January 1, 2018, predicting 36 named storms, 7 usercanes and 4 major usercanes. After a very active January, the JCSC released their revised prediction, predicting a season more like 2017, with 30-40 named storms, 3-5 usercanes, and 2 major usercanes. On February 12, the CMC revised their predictions on the number of named userstorms developing after a record-breaking January, with no change in the number of usercanes and major usercanes.

Timeline

Systems

Tropical Userstorm Avdis

Tropical userstorm (NUC)
Avdis 2018.jpg
Duration January 3 – January 27
Peak intensity 50 mph (85 km/h) (1-min)  1000 mbar (hPa)

On January 3, a tropical userwave emerged off the coast of Africa. The wave quickly organized, strengthening into a tropical userpression on the same day, the first one of the season. Forming on January 3, it became the earliest first depression of any usercane season on record, breaking the previous record set by Tropical Depression Four in 2016. The userpression reached tropical userstorm status the next day, becoming the earliest named system to reach tropical userstorm status on record, breaking the previous record set by Tropical Userstorm Destiny of 2016. Shortly after reaching peak intensity, Avdis began to slowly weaken, and on January 27 the storm degenerated to a tropical userwave. On February 1, the remnants of Avdis began to show signs of regeneration, and the next day the remnants briefly regenerated into a tropical userpression. The regenerated system finally dissipated days later.

Tropical Userpression Two (HurricaneRafael)

Tropical userpression (NUC)
Rafael Jan 8.jpg
Duration January 8 – January 24
Peak intensity 25 mph (35 km/h) (1-min)  1012 mbar (hPa)

On December 11, 2017, a weak tropical userwave exited the coast of Africa. This wave lingered just off the coast of Africa for several days until it began a slow northwestward track. The wave remained weak and disorganized until January 8, when it was designated as Tropical Userpression Two. The nascent userpression struggled with a Saharan air mass and failed to strengthen significantly. On January 24, the depression was completely devoid of convection, and the NUC discontinued advisories as the system opened up into a tropical userwave.

Tropical Userstorm Blue (Bluecaner)

Tropical userstorm (NUC)
Blue Feb 2018.jpg
Duration January 14 – Active
Peak intensity 50 mph (85 km/h) (1-min)  994 mbar (hPa)

Another tropical userwave left the coast of Africa on December 18, 2017. The wave tracked swiftly westward across the tropical Atlantic and showed no signs of development until January 11, when the wave developed into a tropical userpression while located 300 miles northeast of the Leeward Islands. The system continued to steadily intensify, and on January 18 was designated as Tropical Userstorm Blue.

Current storm information

As of 01:00 UTC February 18, Tropical Userstorm Blue is located 367 miles northwest of the Leeward Islands. Maximum sustained winds are at 40 mph (65 km/h). The minimum barometric pressure is 1001 hectopascals, and the system is moving northwest at 4 mpd.

Tropical Userstorm Morgan (TheRealHurricaneTrackerSps123)

Tropical userstorm (NUC)
TD Four January 2018.jpg
Duration January 16 – February 3
Peak intensity 40 mph (65 km/h) (1-min)  1006 mbar (hPa)
On June 17, 2017, the NUC began monitoring an area of low pressure that was expected to detach from a stalled cold front. However, the low pressure area stalled over the Central Atlantic. Unusually, the low failed to strengthen and instead weakened rapidly. On January 16, another area of low pressure was identified over the Central Atlantic, and later assessed to have formed from the remnants of the June low, which was cycled through steering currents across the Atlantic. On January 16, the low was classified as Tropical Userpression Four. Four days later, it strengthened into Tropical Userstorm Morgan and reached its peak intensity. Shortly thereafter, Morgan began to weaken as it accelerated northeast, and on February 3 the storm was absorbed by a cold front south of the Azores.

Tropical Userstorm Brickkks

Tropical userstorm (NUC)
Brickkks January 2018.jpg
Duration January 20 – Active
Peak intensity 50 mph (85 km/h) (1-min)  996 mbar (hPa)

On January 20, the NUC began monitoring an area of low pressure that developed near roughly 100 miles off the coast of North Carolina. The low quickly attained tropical characteristics, and on the same day it was classified as Tropical Userpression Five. The userpression remained steady in intensity for a few days until January 26, when it strengthened into Tropical Userstorm Brickks.

Current storm information

As of 01:00 UTC February 18, Tropical Userstorm Brickkks is located 118 miles east of the coast of Virginia. Maximum sustained winds are at 50 mph (85 km/h). The minimum barometric pressure is 997 hectopascals, and the system is moving north at 2 mpd.

Tropical Userstorm Mobile (No.1 Mobile)

Tropical userstorm (NUC)
Mobile Feb 2018.png
Duration January 20 – Active
Peak intensity 50 mph (85 km/h) (1-min)  1000 mbar (hPa)

On January 20, the NUC began monitoring an area of low pressure that developed 160 miles north-northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula. The low quickly developed into Tropical Userpression Six. The userpression was quick to intensify, and on January 22 the National Usercane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Userstorm Mobile.

Current storm information

As of 01:00 UTC February 18, Tropical Userstorm Mobile is located 207 miles north-northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula. Maximum sustained winds are at 50 mph (85 km/h). The minimum barometric pressure is 1,000 hectopascals, and the system is moving west-northwest at 2 mpd.

Tropical Userstorm Cube (FM Cube)

Tropical userstorm (NUC)
Cube January 2018.jpg
Duration January 24 – Active
Peak intensity 50 mph (85 km/h) (1-min)  998 mbar (hPa)

On January 14, a trough of low pressure formed over the Central Atlantic Ocean. The trough stalled as it drew moisture from a tropical low to the south of the trough. By January 22, the trough began to show signs of significant organization, and on January 24 it was classified as a tropical userpression. On January 27, the userpression strengthened a great degree, and it was upgraded to Tropical Userstorm Cube.

Current storm information

As of 01:00 UTC February 18, Tropical Userstorm Cube is located 1,259 miles south of Newfoundland. Maximum sustained winds are at 50 mph (85 km/h). The minimum barometric pressure is 998 hectopascals, and the system is moving north at 2 mpd.

Tropical Userstorm Pstar (Pstar77)

Tropical userstorm (NUC)
Pstar January 2018.jpg
Duration January 25 – Active
Peak intensity 50 mph (85 km/h) (1-min)  995 mbar (hPa)

A large tropical userwave exited the coast of Africa on January 23. The wave then split, with the northern portion developing into a tropical userpression early on January 25. The nascent userpression struggled to intensify due to strengthening wind shear, and on February 3, the userpression degenerated to a remnant low as it succumbed to the effects of shear. The remnants drifted northwestward and began to reorganize under favorable conditions. On February 7, the userpression regenerated, and later the same day strengthened into a tropical userstorm.

Current storm information

As of 01:00 UTC February 18, Tropical Userstorm Pstar is located 223 miles west of Cape Verde. Maximum sustained winds are at 50 mph (85 km/h). The minimum barometric pressure is 995 hectopascals, and the system is moving west-northwest at 1 mpd.

Tropical Userstorm Frosty (Frosty2000)

Tropical userstorm (NUC)
Frosty Feb 2018.jpg
Duration February 9 – Active
Peak intensity 50 mph (85 km/h) (1-min)  993 mbar (hPa)

A tropical userpression formed from a tropical userwave northwest of Cape Verde on February 9. Despite uncertainty in the forecasting of the userpression, with some models expecting it to dissipate quickly, it instead quickly intensified into Tropical Userstorm Frosty. Throughout the following day, Frosty continued to quickly intensify, reaching winds of 50 mph (65 km/h) in less than a day after formation. Afterward, the storm continued to intensify at a fast rate throughout the following week.

Current storm information

As of 01:00 UTC February 18, Tropical Userstorm Frosty is located 40 miles northwest of Cape Verde. Maximum sustained winds are at 50 mph (85 km/h). The minimum barometric pressure is 993 hectopascals, and the system is moving west-northwest at 2 mpd.

Tropical Userstorm Irma (Ef5tornadofan77)

Tropical userstorm (NUC)
TD Ten Feb 2018.jpg
Duration February 10 – Active
Peak intensity 45 mph (75 km/h) (1-min)  1005 mbar (hPa)

A shortwave trough formed over the central Atlantic on January 30. On February 8, the low detached from the front and subsequently began to acquire tropical characteristics. On February 10, the NUC classified the low as Tropical Userpression Ten. On February 14, due to low wind shear and abnormally high sea surface temperatures, the userpression strengthened into a tropical userstorm

Current storm information

As of 01:00 UTC February 18, Tropical Userstorm Irma is located 601 miles southwest of the Azores. Maximum sustained winds are at 45 mph (75 km/h). The minimum barometric pressure is 1,005 hectopascals, and the system is moving northeast at 1 mpd.

Tropical Userpression Eleven (Jwbaker15)

Tropical userpression (NUC)
TD Eleven Feb 2018.jpg
Duration February 18 – Active
Peak intensity 25 mph (35 km/h) (1-min)  1011 mbar (hPa)

Current storm information

As of 01:00 UTC February 18, Tropical Userpression Eleven is located 320 miles west of Cape Verde. Maximum sustained winds are at 25 mph (35 km/h). The minimum barometric pressure is 1,011 hectopascals, and the system is moving west at 5 mpd.

Other systems

Moonlight January 2018

Tropical Userstorm Moonlight on January 28

A tropical userpression formed from a trough of low pressure west of Cape Verde on January 25. Operationally, the userpression was classified as Tropical Userpression Nine, and then Tropical Userstorm Moonlight. However, the storm was later found to have been a regeneration of Tropical Userstorm Fester.

Season summary

2018usercanesummaryjanuary

All usercanes as of January 2018.

Season effects

This is a table of all the storms that have formed in the 2018 Atlantic usercane season. It includes their duration, names, landfall(s), denoted in parentheses, damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but were still related to that storm. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a wave, or a low, and all the damage figures are in 2018 USD.

NUC usercane scale
TD TS STS C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6
2018 Atlantic usercane season statistics
Storm
name
Dates active Storm category

at peak intensity

Max 1-min
wind
mph (km/h)
Min.
press.
(mbar)
Areas affected Damage
(millions USD)
Deaths


Avdis January 3 – January 27 Tropical storm 50 (85) 1000 Cape Verde Minimal None
Two January 8 – January 24 Tropical depression 25 (35) 1012 None None None
Blue January 14 – Currently Active Tropical storm 50 (85) 994 None None None
Morgan January 16 – February 3 Tropical storm 40 (65) 1006 None None None
Brickkks January 20 – Currently Active Tropical storm 50 (85) 997 None None None
Mobile January 20 – Currently Active Tropical storm 50 (85) 1000 Yucatán Peninsula Minimal None
Cube January 24 – Currently Active Tropical storm 50 (85) 998 None None None
Pstar January 25 – Currently Active Tropical storm 50 (85) 995 None None None
Frosty February 9 – Currently Active Tropical storm 50 (85) 993 Cape Verde Minimal None
Irma February 10 – Currently Active Tropical storm 45 (75) 1004 None None None
Eleven February 18 – Currently Active Tropical depression 25 (35) 1011 None None None
Season Aggregates
10 cyclones January 3 – Season ongoing   50 (85) 993 Minimal None
Atlantic usercane seasons
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