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2018-19 Alaskan Arctic Cyclone Season
2018-19 AAS SMap.png
First storm formed August 6 - Abrianna
Last storm dissipated Season ongoing
Strongest storm TBD
Total polar depressions 10
Total polar storms 9
Polar cyclones 7
Major polar cyclones 2
Total fatalities TBD
Total damage TBD

The 2018-19 Alaskan arctic cyclone season will begin on September 15, 2018 and end on March 15, 2019. However, polar cyclone formation is possible at any time in the year. Due to an expected El Niño which flatlines the jet stream over the basin, which typically limits polar cyclone formation. However, a huge gyre has appeared in the basin again, which might counteract the effects of the El Niño.

Timeline

Seasonal Forecasts

Predictions of polar activity in the 2018-19 Alaskan Arctic Cyclone Season
Source Date Named
storms
Polar cyclones Major
polar cyclones
Average (1979-2016) 16.4 9.7 5.1
Record high activity 34 25 16
Record low activity 9 4 1
HTMC June 28, 2018 13-18 7-11 3-6
BNMA June 28, 2018 14-19 6-11 3-6
LHC June 28, 2018 13-20 7-11 3-7
PWC June 28, 2018 15-19 8-10 2-5
BNWC June 28, 2018 14-19 8-12 4-7
GKWC July 4, 2018 12-16 5-9 2-5
DHC August 7, 2018 17-20 8-12 2-5
CSHC August 7, 2018 15 6 2
SHC August 7, 2018 14 6 3
RMA August 7, 2018 15-19 6-10 2-4
BNWC September 11, 2018 16-21 9-13 4-7
CDMC September 11, 2018 17-20 9-12 4-8
WHC October 9, 2018 16 5 3
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Actual activity
9 7 2

Polar Cyclone Outlook

ZXZX TOLPCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KHTMC DDHHMM
0600 UTC Thu November 8 2018

For the Alaskan Arctic region:
The HTMC is currently issuing advisories on Polar Cyclone Idra, which is located near Prince of Wales island.

--------------
   BULLETIN
--------------
Polar Cyclone Idra Advisory Number  7
HTMC Hypercane's Meteorological Center Toledo OH  AAC102018
0600 UTC Thu November 8 2018

...IDRA CONTINUING TO EXPLOSIVELY INTENSIFY...

SUMMARY OF 0100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS....165 MPH...265 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...898 MB....26.52 INCHES
PRESENT MOVEMENT.....W AT 12 MPH.....19 KM/H

---------------
   FORECAST
---------------
INIT...145 KT...165 MPH
006H...185 KT...215 MPH
012H...200 KT...230 MPH
024H...180 KT...205 MPH
048H...170 KT...195 MPH
072H...140 KT...160 MPH

Storms

Polar Cyclone Abrianna

Minimal polar cyclone (HTMC)
Abrianna (August 2018 - Hype) Abrianna (Track - Hype)
Duration August 7 – August 11
Peak intensity 75 mph (120 km/h) (1-min)
972 mbar


Polar Cyclone Bob

Moderate polar cyclone (HTMC)
Bob (September 2018 - Hype) Bob (Track - Hype)
Duration September 11 – September 15
Peak intensity 100 mph (160 km/h) (1-min)
967 mbar


Subpolar Storm Calista

Subpolar storm (HTMC)
Calista (2018 - Sim - Hype) Calista (2018 - Track - Hype)
Duration September 25 – September 27
Peak intensity 50 mph (80 km/h) (1-min)
998 mbar


Subpolar Depression Four-A

Subpolar depression (HTMC)
Subpolar Depression Four 0009z September 25 04A (2018 - Track - Hype)
Duration September 25 – September 26
Peak intensity 35 mph (55 km/h) (1-min)
999 mbar


Polar Cyclone Daisuke

Polar vortex (HTMC)
Daisuke (2018 - Hype - Sim) Daisuke (2018 - Hype - Track)
Duration October 8 – October 13
Peak intensity 200 mph (320 km/h) (1-min)
876 mbar


Polar Cyclone Earlene

Minimal polar cyclone (HTMC)
Earlene (2018 - Hype - Sim) Earlene (2018 - Hype - Track)
Duration October 14 – October 18
Peak intensity 70 mph (115 km/h) (1-min)
987 mbar


Polar Cyclone Faxon

Minimal polar cyclone (HTMC)
Faxon (2018 - Hype - Sim) Faxon (2018 - Hype - Track)
Duration October 16 – October 21
Peak intensity 65 mph (105 km/h) (1-min)
992 mbar


Polar Cyclone Gabriella

Minimal polar cyclone (HTMC)
Gabriella (2018 - Hype - Sim) Gabriella (2018 - Hype - Track)
Duration October 22 – October 27
Peak intensity 75 mph (120 km/h) (1-min)
986 mbar


Polar Storm Hadrian

Polar storm (HTMC)
Hadrian (2018 - Hype - Sim) Hadrian (2018 - Hype - Track)
Duration October 28 – November 1
Peak intensity 50 mph (80 km/h) (1-min)
1000 mbar


Polar Cyclone Idra

IdraPV
Current storm status:
Polar vortex (1-min mean)
Idra (2018 - Hype - Sim) 
As of: 06:00z, November 8, 2018
Location: 55.8°N 142.5°W ± 25 nm
Sustained Winds:

145 kt (165 mph; 265 km/h)
(1-min mean)

gusting to 175 kt (200 mph; 320 km/h)
Minimum Pressure: 898 mbar (hPa; 26.52 inHg)
Movement: W at 10 kt (12 mph; 19 km/h)
See more detailed information.

Current storm information

As of 06:00 UTC on November 8, Polar Cyclone Idra is located near 55.8°N 142.5°W. 1-minute sustained winds are at 265 km/h (165 mph) with gusts of up to 320 km/h (200 mph). The minimum barometric pressure is at 898 hectopascals (26.52 inHg), and the system is moving south-southwestward at 10 kn (19 km/h; 12 mph).

Storm Names

  • Abrianna
  • Bob
  • Calista
  • Daisuke
  • Earlene
  • Faxon
  • Gabriella
  • Hadrian
  • Idra (active)
  • Jabbar (unused)
  • Katelynn (unused)
  • Ladarius (unused)
  • Marcella (unused)
  • Nadim (unused)
  • Octavia (unused)
  • Paco (unused)
  • Rachael (unused)
  • Sadler (unused)
  • Tacita (unused)
  • Valentino (unused)
  • Wakana (unused)