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The 2017 Atlantic usercane season featured a record number of named userstorms forming. However, the season was very weak, with only 4 usercanes and 2 major usercanes - the least since 2012 and 2013, respectively.
Although the season had an early start and featured a very high number of named storms, the season was very weak, and had the slowest start since 2013, with only 2 storms forming before the month of April. Despite the uptick in named storms in early June, only two achieved major usercane intensity — Usercane Chap, and Usercane Alissa - with the latter only achieving usercane intensity for a short time. The lack of activity is believed to be attributed to a significant weakening of the userthermohaline circulation, creating unfavorable conditions in the Atlantic — especially the Main Development Region (MDR). As of August, no usercanes have formed from tropical userwaves — the first such occurrence on record. In September, specifically late September, there was an explosive increase in activity, at least eight userstorms forming in late September alone. However, the season remains weak with no new usercanes. The explosion of activity continued on in October, even setting the record for the most named storms in any usercane season.
The season's strongest storm was Usercane Chap, a strong but compact Category 4 usercane. The other fully tropical usercanes were Usercanes Cooper and Prism, which were the third and fourth hurricane-strength storms, respectively, as Subtropical Userstorm Alissa had achieved Category 3 intensity as a subtropical storm.
During post-season analysis, 4 unnoticed userstorms were identified — Tropical Userstotm Justin, Tropical Userstorm Barney, Tropical Userstorm Nicholas, and Tropical Userstorm Orange. Only 2 of the unnoticed storms are active as of today.
Predictions of tropical activity in the 2017 season
* June–November only. † Most recent of several such occurrences. (see all)
Ahead of and during the season, several usercane centers release seasonal forecasts. On December 4, 2016, the Garfield International Hurricane Center (GIHC) released its forecast, predicting above average activity with 25 named storms, 7 usercanes and 5 major usercanes, which is slightly above the long-term average but significantly less active than the 2015 and 2016 seasons. On December 14, the National Usercane Center released their first 2017 forecast, predicting above-average activity with 25-30 named storms, 7-10 usercanes, and 5-8 major usercanes. A third hurricane center, the Akio Hypothetical Usercane Center (AHUC), made its prediction on December 23, 2016, predicting well above average activity with 34-38 Tropical Storms, 9-13 usercanes, and 7-11 Major usercanes. On the same day as the AHUC, the Floyd Meteorological Center (FMC) released their 2017 forecasts, predicting slightly above-average activity with 26-31 named storms, 7-10 usercanes and 4-7 major usercanes. The same day, the Brick National Meteorological Agency issued their forecast, predicting above average activity, with 27-36 named storms, with 6-11 of those becoming usercanes (74 mph+), and 5-8 major usercanes (111 mph+). On December 26, 2016, ICON released its official prediction of 28 named storms, 11 usercanes, and 8 major usercanes for the 2017 season. That same day, the Keranique Meteorological Center (KMC) released their forecast, predicting an overall above-average season with 25 named storms, 11 usercanes, but a below-average 4 major usercanes. Also on that same day, the Money Hurricane National Hypothetical Hurricanes Center (MHNHHC) released their forecast, also predicting above-average activity but a less active season than 2015 and 2016, with 21 named storms, 11 usercanes and 5 major usercanes. On December 30, the HTs Meteorological Center (HTMC) released its forecast, predicting above average activity as well with 27 named storms, 14 usercanes and 6 major usercanes. On December 31, the Mushroom Kingdom National Hurricane Center (MKNHC) released its seasonal prediction for 2017, predicting above average activity with 29 named storms, 16 usercanes and 8 major usercanes. On January 6, the BPWPC made its prediction for the 2017 usercane season, predicting 26-31 storms, 10-12 hurricanes, and 4-8 major hurricanes, an above-average season. Later the same day, the Minecraft Hurricane Center (MHC) released its forecast for the season, predicting above-average activity, with 25 named storms, 11 usercane, and 5 major usercanes. On April 29, 2017, the BPWPC made its updated forecast, taking actual storms into account. It predicted 12-19 named storms, 3-8 usercanes, and 0-4 major usercanes. On June 27, the Mushroom Kingdom National Hurricane Center released its forecast, significantly lower then previous predictions - only predicting 11 named storms, 4 usercanes and only 1 major usercane. This was due to to the observation of a significant decrease in the strength of the userthermohaline circulation, creating conditions in the Atlantic similar to what is observed in the spring.
Around 14:00 UTC on December 31, satellite imagery indicated that a tropical disturbance had developed over central Africa. While gradually moving to the west, the wave originally showed very little convective organization, with sparse thunderstorm activity. On January 3, it entered the Atlantic Ocean and began to quickly develop, but the circulation remained ill-defined. The disturbance was designated Invest 90U by the National Usercane Center on January 4. Organization continued to increase over the next 2 days, and at approximately 15:00 UTC on January 6, Invest 90U became Tropical Userpression One as it developed a closed circulation. The userpression eventually strengthened into a deep userpression. However, it peaked just under tropical userstorm force, with a maximum wind of 38 mph reported. Convection eventually collapsed, and the userpression opened up into a tropical wave while located southwest of Cape Verde on January 22. On April 9, 2017, however, the wave developed a new circulation as winds had increased to tropical storm force, and the system was named Tropical Userstorm Chaser at that time. However, after briefly attaining tropical userstorm status, Chaser began to lose tropical characteristics once again as convection began to wane, and the low was no longer recognizable by late April.
Usercane Chap (TropicalStormChapsteck; formerly Chapsteck4yurlipis)
On January 18, a non-tropical area of low pressure developed along a stationary front south of Bermuda. The low separated from the front, eventually consolidating into Tropical Userstorm Chap. Nearly stationary, Chap slowly strengthened, acquiring severe tropical userstorm status by January 28. Chap continued to strengthen slowly. On February 23, 2017, Chap strengthened into the first usercane of the 2017 season. It intensified to 90 mph, but increasing wind shear caused Chap to remain weak through the next few months. Chap briefly weakened to 85 mph. Wind shear slowly abated in late April, and Chap's eye began to clear out, and on May 16, 2017, Chap attained category 2 intensity. On July 4, 2017, Chap became the first major usercane of the season
A non-tropical low located well east of Bermuda became a tropical userpression on January 26 after it developed persistent deep convection for several days. The userpession steadily strengthened into Tropical Storm Mli by January 31. However, deep convection dissipated on February 15 and the cyclone degenerated into a swirl of low-level clouds; Mli was no longer a tropical cyclone after this time.
On March 31, a tropical wave exited the coast of Africa. The next day, it developed sufficient organization to be designated Tropical Userpression Four, ending a drought of over 2 months without any new systems. Four strengthened into a Deep Userpression on April 2. The next day the depression strengthened into Tropical Userstorm Joshua.
A non-tropical low developed into Tropical Userpression Five late on April 8 in the central Atlantic Ocean. Early on April 10, the userpression strengthened into Tropical Userstorm Koliana. The quickly developing cyclone strengthened a little more, before leveling out in intensity by April 20. By the beginning of May, steady weakening began due to dry air infiltration. However, Koliana was soon able to strengthen into a severe userstorm. Koliana strengthened slightly more in June however did not strengthen further. Koliana weakened slightly in late June and then stood stationary through early July.
A low pressure area developed over the central Atlantic on April 2. Very gradual strengthening occurred over the next three weeks as convection developed and dissipated periodically. The low finally attained tropical userpression status on April 23, becoming the sixth tropical cyclone of the season. Shortly after, it began weakening and became a remnant low on April 30.
A subtropical low formed in mid-March and continued through early April with no development. However, the storm encountered warm waters and begin to develop on April 4, being declared Subtropical Userpression Seven the next day. The userpression strengthened slightly however in mid-April lost some convection and weakened. The userpression soon was declared post-tropical, however in May its remnants gained a closed circulation and was re-declared a tropical userpression. Soon after 35-knot winds were recorded which prompted an upgrade to Tropical Userstorm Brave. The storm continued into July with no change in strength.
On May 25, a non-tropical low developed into Subtropical Userpression Nine in the central Atlantic. The userpression was initially weak and disorganized, and did not strengthen. On July 12, the NUC declared it a remnant low. Unexpectedly, showers and thunderstorms the next day, although the remnants changed little in organization for the next two weeks. In late July, convection quickly reorganized, and after ASCAT data showed tropical storm force winds and a well-defined circulation, NUC initiated advisories on Subtropical Userstorm Peri on July 28.
A tropical userwave exited the coast of Africa in early February 2017. However, it did not develop into a tropical userpression until June 8, when it was located southwest of Cabo Verde. The userpression eventually strengthened into a userstorm days later and was named Abdullah. The userstorm continued with little change in strength until mid-late June where the storm was downgraded into a tropical userpression after it had been reported to have weakened.
Severe Tropical Userstorm Addict (AhurricaneADDICTXD)
On June 10, a tropical userwave exited the coast of Africa. It developed into a tropical userpression by 00:00 UTC on June 13. The cyclone slowly strengthened into Tropical Storm Addict shortly thereafter as it continued to become better organized. In mid-July, it strengthened into a severe tropical userstorm.
In mid-July, a non-tropical area of low pressure formed south of Bermuda. Initial organization was slow to occur. The low pressure area interacted with a tropical wave on July 20 as convection substantially increased, and the NUC initiated advisories on Tropical Userpression Thirteen on July 21. On the same day, the depression would strengthen into Tropical Userstorm Minus.
A tropical userwave developed into a Tropical Userpression on July 22, and quickly strengthened into Tropical Userstorm Stacy later that day. It strengthened to its peak intensity later that day, with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Strong wind shear limited intensification, and the low-level center of the userstorm became exposed right after formation. NUC operationally treated the userstorm as a low and did not initiate advisories, due to the intermittent nature of the convection. Stacy opened up into a tropical userwave late on July 23. Stacy eventually regenerated on August 22, but strong wind shear limited further strengthening. Over the course of the next few months, Stacy was slow to strengthen, fluctuating in intensity multiple times.
Soon after reaching its initial peak intensity on July 22, Stacy sunk two boats in the open Atlantic. 5 people died as a result. The first boat had a family of three aboard. All three were lost and never found. The other boat had a group of friends aboard, two of which died after the sinking. The other three survived after being discovered by a boat that passed by. On January 5, Stacy began to rapidly accelerate toward the Caribbean Sea, and on January 11 the storm made landfall on Hispaniola. The storm's remnants emerged off the coast of the island on January 13, before racing towards the United States. The remnants moved over land near Charleston, South Carolina on January 14 and raced inland before dissipating near the Great Lakes.
On August 3rd, a tropical userwave exited the coast of Africa. A trough of low pressure interacted with the system, increasing the wave's convection while the two systems remained seperate. The wave gradually developed into a tropical userpression over the next few days until it became Tropical Userstorm Cooper. The storm moved slowly across the tropical Atlantic, strengthening into a Severe Tropical Userstorm on October 11th. On December 1, Cooper became the third (second fully tropical) usercane of the season. On January 5, 2018, Cooper intensified into a Category 2 usercane as it continued to track slowly northwestward. Upon strengthening into a usercane on December 1, Cooper became the southernmost storm of usercane intensity, attaining this strength at 11.8 degrees latitude.
As of December 2, 2017, Usercane Cooper is located south of Hispaniola, moving northwest at 3 mpd.
After nearly 2 weeks as a tropical userpression, Tropical Userstorm Cake formed from Tropical Userpression Sixteen. Cake persisted as a tropical userstorm until December 16, when it finally dissipated.
A tropical userwave entered the Gulf of Mexico on August 31. The userwave developed into a tropical userpression on September 2 and began to strengthen. On September 9 it was classified as Tropical Userstorm Dezcrafter. The newly-formed storm traveled to the northwest. On November 23, Dezcrafter made landfall in Texas at peak intensity with winds of 50 mph (85 km/h) and dissipated a few days late
A trough of low pressure developed into a tropical userpression on September 2. The depression lingered over the tropical Atlantic Ocean for a few days as it strengthened into Tropical Userstorm Dene. Afterward, Dene tracked westward towards the Leeward Islands. Unusually, Dene turned southwest after entering the Caribbean Sea and made landfall in Colombia on October 25. The remnants of Dene eventually dissipated 2 days later. Dene was later assesed to be a regeneration of Tropical Userstorm Butter.
Tropical Userpression Thirty-Three developed from an upper-level trough on September 7. Tracking westward, the userpression quickly strengthened into Tropical Userstorm Prism. Afterward, Prism displayed healthy convection, but strengthened slowly, becoming a Severe Tropical Userstorm on November 19. Afterward, Prism yet again continued to organize but strengthen slowly until December 12, when it became the fourth (third fully tropical) usercane of the 2017 season. In early January 2018, Prism began to show signs of rapid intensification, with forecasts showing that it could possibly reach Category 3 intensity. However, Prism ran into shear before intensifying, and the round of strengthening never came into fruition.
During a routine post-season analysis, the CMC noted that a tropical userwave which had moved off the coast of Africa on September 10 had actually developed into a tropical userpression on October 12, and had gone unnoticed. After further analysis, the CMC was able to identify the unnamed system as Tropical Userstorm Justin.
A tropical userwave merged with a trough of low pressure to create a broad area of low pressure west of Cape Verde. On October 13, this low strengthened into a tropical userpression, and then into Tropical Userstorm Fester a few days later. Unusually, Fester turned to the northeast as it slowly strengthened, and on November 9 the storm made landfall in Morocco. The remnants of Fester developed a new circulation before making landfall yet again in Portugal. Fester continued to form a new circulation every time it made landfall, but the storm only continued to make numerous landfalls in Europe.
On October 23, the NUC spotted a new storm off the western of Africa. As the storm tracked west, it continued to strengthen. Initially the storm was given the name Cane, however it turned out to be an error and was renamed Harvey. A very organized storm, the storm had unusually deep pressure for a tropical storm, at one point having 990 mbar pressure while attaining winds of 55 mph. Its winds intensified slowly, eventually intensifying to a severe tropical storm. The storm continued to intensify with every advisory, each time more intense.
Current storm information
As of 12:00 UTC January 19, Tropical Userstorm Harvey is located west of Cape Verde. Maximum sustained winds are at 65 mph (105 km/h). The minimum barometric pressure is 984 hectopascals, and the system is moving west at 4 mpd.
On October 29, another storm formed off the western of Africa. It did not change much, and peaked at winds of 50 mph and a pressure of 999 mbar on December 25. LOL rapidly weakened, dropping to userpression status on January 19.
Current storm information
As of 12:00 UTC January 19, Tropical Userpression LOL is located west of Cape Verde. Maximum sustained winds are at 35 mph (55 km/h). The minimum barometric pressure is 1005 hectopascals, and the system is moving southwest at 4 mpd.
During the NIMC's post season analysis, an unnoticed userstorm was found by two meteorologists. According to the NIMC, the storm formed on November 18 and went unnoticed. On January 6, along with Tropical Userstorm Barney, was identified as Tropical Userstorm Nicholas.
During the NIMC's post season analysis, an unnoticed userstorm was found by a group of meteorologists. They later named it Lenny as it gained organization. It was then found that Lenny had actually been observed before post-season analysis, but advisories on the system were not issued until January of 2018.
Originally thought to have been a new userstorm, Dene was later assessed to be a possible regeneration of Tropical Userstorm Butter.
This is a table of all the storms that have formed in the 2017 Atlantic usercane season. It includes their duration, names, landfall(s), denoted in parentheses, damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but were still related to that storm. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a wave, or a low, and all the damage figures are in 2017 USD.